Raoul Pal

Most people are getting poorer and they have no idea why. Their salary goes up, their bank balance doesn't shrink… On paper they’re fine. But things like property, stocks, and land run away from you. And every year the gap gets wider. Here's what’s happening: Wages grow at

Most people are getting poorer and they have no idea why. Their salary goes up, their bank balance doesn't shrink… On paper they’re fine. But things like property, stocks, and land run away from you. And every year the gap gets wider. Here's what’s happening: Wages grow at the pace of the economy. Assets grow at the pace of liquidity... about 8% a year. Own assets, the tide carries you up. Don't, and you spend your life running to stand still. And it's deliberate. Banks, central banks and the treasury are the only ones who can create money, and they create it to fund the interest on their debt. That money floods in and lifts every asset with it. Debasement, or liquidity if you want the nicer word. That's the force under everything.

The Universal Code. Consciousness is the substrate. Everything else, physics, biology, markets, AI, is just compute running on the same operating system. New episode is up. As ever, please enjoy!

I've made more money from long-term trends than anything else. And the one I have the most conviction in is L1s. People can't understand how I hold through drawdowns like this. How can you ignore it falling this much? Simple. I'm not looking at the price. I'm looking at what

I've made more money from long-term trends than anything else. And the one I have the most conviction in is L1s. People can't understand how I hold through drawdowns like this. How can you ignore it falling this much? Simple. I'm not looking at the price. I'm looking at what these networks actually become. The economy is about to change shape completely. Billions of AI agents, transacting constantly, at a speed no human system was ever built for. They can't run on the old banking rails. Three-day settlement, correspondent banks, closed on weekends... none of it works for machines. They need rails that are programmable, instant, always on. That's what L1s are. The settlement layer for the machine economy. We just invented them a decade too early. And they're trading at a fraction of the NASDAQ and the semis... for the thing the whole next economy runs on. Wild.

If your returns aren't beating 11% a year, you're getting poorer. Global liquidity grows about 8% a year. That's the money supply expanding, and it means the value of the cash in your pocket falls by roughly that much every year. Add maybe 3% of normal inflation on top and you

If your returns aren't beating 11% a year, you're getting poorer. Global liquidity grows about 8% a year. That's the money supply expanding, and it means the value of the cash in your pocket falls by roughly that much every year. Add maybe 3% of normal inflation on top and you get to an 11% hurdle. Most people think if they've beaten inflation they're fine. They haven't. Inflation and debasement aren't the same thing. Inflation is your money losing value against goods... rent, groceries, fuel. Debasement is your money losing value against assets... property, stocks, the things that actually build wealth. You have to clear both. This is the real reason the rich get richer and everyone else falls behind. One side owns the assets. The other side is holding a melting ice cube.

For years I've written that the entire economy is heading on-chain, and that the smart contract networks are the only rails it can possibly run on. Here's the thing people still haven't understood. Billions of AI agents are about to come online, and they're going to transact constantly... paying each other for compute, data, services, at a scale and speed no human market has ever seen. The existing financial system physically cannot carry them. It’s too slow. And it looks like institutions are catching on. Just last week: Franklin Templeton called AI agents the “use case that finally drives blockchain adoption” Coinbase's agent-payment rails got adopted by Google and Amazon. Samsung put stablecoins in the Galaxy wallet. David Solomon went against the rest of Wall Street to back the Clarity Act. And this is just one week. The rails are being laid, the machine economy is coming to run on them, and most people are still whinging over the daily price movements. We're about to onboard billions of agents onto a financial system that didn't exist twenty years ago. This is fucking wild.

I try to see everything through the bigger picture. When every screen is red, the most useful thing I do is close the laptop and go for a walk in nature. It's how I hold my conviction when everything in me wants to panic. And I'll be honest with you, because pretending

I try to see everything through the bigger picture. When every screen is red, the most useful thing I do is close the laptop and go for a walk in nature. It's how I hold my conviction when everything in me wants to panic. And I'll be honest with you, because pretending otherwise would be insulting. Crypto is painful right now. It is not the gift that keeps on giving that it once was, and all of us in it are feeling poorer and feeling like shit. I feel it too. But feeling bad and being wrong are not the same thing. Nothing in the actual mechanism has broken. The business cycle has already turned. Liquidity says crypto is running cold, not dead. And I still believe, deeply, that layer 1s are the place to be... Ethereum, Solana, Sui. I sat down and wrote my full thinking out today. My up to date thesis on crypto right now, why I'm still here, and where I think the real money gets made from here.

Raoul Pal 转发了 Real Vision (@realvision) 的帖子，并评论：There is so much alpha from members on @RealVision ...。被转发帖子的内容是：One member went long $ALKIMI at the bottom of a 99% drawdown. The call is up 90.85%.

Bitcoin is 87% correlated to global liquidity. The NASDAQ is 97% correlated. Which tells you something most people never realise. These assets are not really trading on earnings, or news, or whatever the story of the week is. They’re tracking the amount of money in the system.

Bitcoin is 87% correlated to global liquidity. The NASDAQ is 97% correlated. Which tells you something most people never realise. These assets are not really trading on earnings, or news, or whatever the story of the week is. They’re tracking the amount of money in the system. Bitcoin just swings harder around that line, because on top of liquidity it is young, volatile, emotional, and still riding a network adoption curve. Sometimes it runs hot. Sometimes it runs cold. Right now it is running cold, so people think something is broken. Nothing is broken. It’s doing exactly what it always does. So here is the question. If these assets track liquidity this closely... what if t you could forecast liquidity itself? Well, actually, you can. As I lay out in my Everything Code framework, liquidity is driven by the debasement of currency, and debasement can be forecast years ahead, because the interest payments that drive it are already known today and they lead liquidity by around three years. Bonkers.

I don't know what the hell they did with Opus 5 but it's an absolute shitshow of a model. It just endlessly makes mistakes, goes off down rabbit holes, doesn't finish tasks. Creates new tasks you never asked it for and just ends up in an endless loop. It's a mess. @AnthropicAI

Everything I just described is part of the frameworks I have spent years building. The Everything Code maps debasement. The Exponential Age maps the acceleration of our world. The Economic Singularity is where they both lead. If you want to understand why I hold through all of it, you can go deeper on all of them at:

When the market gets boring and quiet and everyone turns bearish, I like to come back to the story of how I fucked it all up. And I fucked it up a lot of ways, because crypto is genuinely hard. People think the cycles just repeat. They don't. Every one has a different texture, a different context, and it is so easy to get it wrong. I got in back in 2013. Wrote the first ever macro piece on Bitcoin, and bought at $200, straight into a peak right before it slammed down and I felt like an idiot. But I had a thesis. And the mistake was never the thesis. It was letting the noise talk me out of it... selling, trading around it, being clever, when the only thing that ever worked was holding. That is the whole lesson, and it is the one that matters most at times like this. Crypto is one of the only real secular trends that lets you build wealth against the debasement of your salary. And as the Exponential Age accelerates, it matters more, not less. So when the market gets depressing, I do the same thing every time. I go back to the thesis, and I accumulate. Zoom out.

Raoul Pal 转发了 Coldie 的帖子，并评论：You are all one day going to realise that @Coldie "Know Your Overlord" was highly astute and important social commentary on one of the most important times for humanity. Same as @beeple Regular Animals。被转发帖子的内容是：We’ve are living in really wild times http:// Knowyouroverlord.art

Sometimes we do a little Ibiza...